Those of you who might have assumed that we are nearing the end of the volatility from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union are in for a shock.
Or at least, that’s what we have been told to expect from a whole host of financial leaders, economists and chief executives across the global financial sector.
They may be wrong. Or, at least, that is what the “Vote Leave” campaign had suggested prior to the vote.
The difficulty is that recent events suggest the Leave campaign may have got their predictions slightly wrong.
We have already seen banks, asset managers and trade groups announcing their intentions to move jobs to Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris and these cities are already making a play for some of the jobs residing in London.
Then there are the warnings from Central Bankers such as Mark Carney that further stimulus packages may now have to come into play to prevent the recovery of UK and European economies faltering.
Most surprising, perhaps, are those business leaders that still believe that Brexit may have positive consequences for the UK – and there are some of them.
The overwhelming message from the Eurosceptics is that if the UK is freed from the shackles of European regulation, Britain may become a MORE attractive place for financial groups to do business than it is at the moment.
However, most individuals in the City of London don’t agree. And UK politicians – when not fighting among themselves – have, so far, been keen to underscore the importance of equivalence with European standards after leaving the EU.
Not doing so would certainly make things more complicated and would be a significant gamble for an industry, which is responsible for 4% of the British workforce.
While what will transpire is anyone’s guess, there is one thing that is true and that is that financial markets run on confidence. At the moment, the level of confidence in UK financial services has taken a blow as a result of the marginal vote to leave. And, until that confidence is rebuilt, it is hard to share the optimism of some of the Leave campaigners. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed and hope they are right.