Opinion

Trading desks cannot afford to disagree when markets diverge

Keith Viverito, head of EMEA at Clearwater Analytics highlights a key challenge facing today’s asset managers, where hidden dangers and opportunities are sometime missed due to separate interpretations of equity and fixed-income signals on desks, even though divergences between them often reveal crucial insights about underlying market risks.

Markets rarely move in perfect alignment. But when they diverge, they tend to reveal more than when they agree. The problem for many asset managers today is not that markets are sending mixed signals. It is that those signals are still being interpreted in isolation. 

That matters more now than it has in recent years. Growth is uncertain, inflation is proving stickier than expected, and interest rates are reshaping how assets are priced. In this environment, equities and fixed income are reacting to the same underlying forces, but in different ways and often at different speeds. The gap between them is where risk builds and opportunity emerges. Yet in too many firms, that gap is also where information is lost. 

Consider a simple but common scenario. An equity desk is increasing exposure to a company. Across the corridor, the fixed income team has been watching its credit profile quietly deteriorate for weeks. Neither desk is aware of the other’s positioning. What looks like diversification at a portfolio level is, in reality, a concentration of risk. 

Recent data highlights how this plays out in practice. Private wealth portfolios fell nearly 4% in the first quarter, according to Clearwater Analytics, with equities accounting for the bulk of the decline. Stocks, which make up around 64% of portfolios, dropped 5.5% and contributed a 4.4 percentage point drag on returns. Fixed income also slipped, while gains in alternatives were too small to offset the losses. 

At one level, this reflects a challenging market backdrop. At another, it exposes a deeper issue. When both equities and bonds fall together, diversification is not doing the job investors expect of it. That is not just a portfolio construction problem. It is a sign that the underlying drivers of risk are not being fully understood or acted upon. 

Equities and fixed income are not separate worlds. They are different lenses on the same reality. Equity markets tend to focus on earnings, growth and upside potential. Credit markets focus on balance sheets, financing conditions and downside risk. Both perspectives are necessary, but neither is sufficient on its own. 

The crucial point is that these markets do not adjust simultaneously. Credit often moves first, reflecting tightening financial conditions or rising default risk. Equities can lag, supported by sentiment, flows or concentration in a narrow group of stocks. When that happens, the divergence is not noise. It is information. 

If that information is not shared across desks, it becomes a blind spot. An equity team can be increasing exposure even as credit conditions deteriorate. A firm can believe it is diversified across asset classes while in reality it is accumulating exposure to the same underlying risks. By the time those risks are visible across the whole portfolio, the window to act has narrowed. 

This is where organisational structure and technology start to matter. Many asset managers are still set up along asset class lines, with separate teams, systems and data flows. Information does not move freely between fixed income and equities. Instead, it is reconciled, interpreted and often delayed. In a slower, more stable market, that may have been manageable. In today’s environment, it is a constraint. 

The industry’s response has often been to pursue scale, through consolidation or product expansion. But scale without integration can make the problem worse. More assets, more systems and more teams increase the complexity of joining the dots. Without a unified view, firms risk becoming larger but less agile, with fragmented insights and slower decision-making. 

The real challenge is not a lack of capital or even a lack of data. It is the ability to connect information across the capital structure and act on it quickly. That requires a shift in how investment processes are organised, how data is shared and how risk is understood. Asset managers that continue to operate in silos will find themselves reacting late, or not at all. Those that can bring equity and fixed income perspectives together will be better placed to navigate uncertainty and identify opportunities as they emerge. 

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