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Good grief

According to a recent paper from Societe Generale's global engineering and strategy team, the financial markets' response to the 2008 crash is best understood in terms of the five stages of grief outlined by E Kubler-Ross.

According to a recent paper from Societe Generale's global engineering and strategy team, the financial markets' response to the 2008 crash is best understood in terms of the five stages of grief outlined by E Kubler-Ross.

First came denial in 2009, followed by the more active emotional response of anger in 2010, when hopes of a quick recovery were dashed, austerity became the new black and the flash crash showed that, on top of everything else, all was not well with the structure of the equity markets. In 2011, as the focus of concern switched from the survival of the banking sector to the survival of the euro-zone, the markets first bargained then fell into a passive depression in 2012 as the government debt crisis dragged on, both in Europe and in the US. But 2013 will be the year of acceptance in which we can finally move on, look forward and identify some real value in the equity markets.

"It is not necessarily that the economy has markedly improved, it is mainly that the current downside tail risks are better apprehended, and that without systemic risk, we can for the first time in years consider the potential returns from holding equities," the report argues.

Many asset managers and end-investors will be hoping that this elegant theory proves correct, even though the bank is at pains to point out that this does not give the green light for a major asset allocation shift.

Perhaps the point is more that volatility levels in general are dropping along with correlations, allowing for risks and potential returns to be identified on a sector-by-sector or even stock-by-stock basis.

In time, this might also mean investment decisions become easier to implement by trading desks that, over the past 12 months or so, have conducted increasingly detailed execution analysis prior to releasing their most important trades into the market. But for the moment, continued evidence of sharp volatility spikes in reaction to news flow, suggests that the nimblest of strategies will be the most popular. 

Delayed and disorganised

This week, the European Parliament raised the prospect of taking parts of Europe’s OTC derivatives reform back to the drawing board – just a month before the industry was expecting final sign-off of the new rules.

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A sigh of relief for HFT firms?

The festive season has offered a delayed gift to HFT firms that have spent most of 2012 in the crosshairs of European regulators and politicians.

Leaving no stone unturned in the search for collateral

While delegates at this week's snow-bound Global Securities Financing conference in Luxembourg reached some kind of consensus on the new collateral required by OTC derivative reforms (trillions not billions), there was less agreement on where to find it.

A step in the unknown?

This headline - which sits atop the editorial of the first issue of The TRADE Derivatives (back from the printers this week and hopefully on a desk near you soon) - reflects both the impact of derivatives reform on the buy-side and our own nerves ahead of a new launch.

Where are we now?

The title of David Bowie's unexpected new single shows the 66-year-old rock'n'roll chameleon has not lost his gift for the zeitgeist, capturing as it does the pervasive sense of uncertainty felt by many.

Lost in Liffe’s shadow

The IntercontinentalExchange bid for NYSE Euronext demonstrates just how important derivatives revenues will be for exchanges, but appears to leave the future of key European equity markets in doubt.

Annus horribilis or a Happy New Year?

With the US on the edge of a fiscal cliff, a global climate of sluggish markets and regulatory fatigue persisting like a stubborn flu, one could be forgiven for not expecting a lot more out of 2013 than you got out of the current year.

Rethinking research

A tough environment for the sell-side could be made even more challenging through the way buy-side firms manage and value research.

Dark pools move further into Hong Kong spotlight

It seems dark liquidity concerns are still prominent in people’s minds in Hong Kong, where the issue was brought up in the Legislative Council last week and again discussed among market participants.