Cboe has made its first steps into prediction markets, launching the first products in its dedicated suite.
JJ Kinahan
The Cboe Predicts offering spans binary option contracts based on the Mini-S&P 500 Index (XSP) and allows traders to trade on the performance of the S&P 500 Index on a smaller scale, and express a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ view on where XSP may close.
At launch, the contracts are available to market participants via Interactive Brokers, and further expansion to additional platforms, such as Charles Schwab, is expected to to be implemented over the next few months.
Cboe has had plans in the works to move into the prediction markets space for the last few months, announcing its intentions to launch in event prediction markets in its Q4 2025 earnings call.
“Following the success of SPX 0DTE options, we have seen continued customer demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading, creating a natural extension for Cboe to introduce XSP binary options,” said JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe.
“With Cboe Predicts, we are expanding that choice by offering simple ‘yes-or-no’ payout event contracts, supported by dedicated educational resources designed to help customers participate more confidently and responsibly.”
Read more – Prediction markets: Are we betting on the wrong horse?
In addition, developments to the suite will also include trading of XSP vertical spreads through Cboe’s proprietary, patent-pending Quoted Spread Book (QSB) framework, which aims to package widely used options strategies into a simpler solution.
The contracts are also cleared through the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC), and will trade in the same regulatory framework as US listed options.
Milan Galik, chief executive of Interactive Brokers, said: “Investors increasingly seek products that allow them to express a specific view on future events and market outcomes. Cboe’s binary options and Mini-S&P 500 Index contracts provide another way to do that, and we are pleased to make them available to Interactive Brokers clients.”
According to recent research by Connamara Technologies and Acuiti in March 2026, nearly half of traditional financial exchanges are ‘considering’ launching prediction markets.